🌍 This Week in Ag: Price Drops, Droughts & a $5B Trade Deal
Plus: Africa’s new trade flows, AI-powered farms, and the $5B US-UK food corridor
🌾 Agro World Report – Weekly Insight
Covering: June 6–14, 2025
Fresh, actionable intel for agri professionals, commodity traders, and food system investors.
📊 Global Agri‑Commodity Price Trends
Wheat:
Global production is up 1% year-over-year, now at 808.6 million tons. India leads with a record 117.5 million tons, while Ukraine's output dipped 2% due to ongoing conflict. In the UK, bread wheat dropped to £219.50/ton (down £7), and feed wheat is at £180.50/ton.
Corn:
World corn production reached 1,266 million tons, a 3.5% increase year-over-year. South Africa’s maize exports surged, helping boost agricultural export revenue by 10% in Q1 2025.
Rice:
India recorded a new high with 151 million tons—up 2% from the previous month.
Soybeans:
US soybean futures (Nov 2025) fell by 2.3%, driven by rapid planting progress and weak export demand. Brazil’s outlook is more bullish, with their 2024/25 production estimate raised to 172 million tons.
Palm Oil & Sunflowerseed:
Global palm oil production rose 2.28% to 80.74 million tons. Russia’s sunflowerseed crop is also expanding, now forecast at 17.5 million tons (up 4%).
Rapeseed (UK/EU):
UK rapeseed futures dropped 2.5% last week. Overall EU and UK output is expected to rise slightly to 20.4 million tons.
🌦️ Climate & Weather Impacts
🔵 Europe
Historic droughts in Germany and western Europe; March 2025 driest ever recorded.
Southern Europe may see annual crop losses reach €20B by 2050 if trends persist.
🟢 Africa
Sub-Saharan regions battling erratic rainfall, droughts & pests (e.g., fall armyworm).
North Africa: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia anticipate +1.4 Mt YoY in grain output.
🟡 Latin America
Brazil's Amazon Basin still reporting record-low water levels, hurting rural yields.
🏛️ Government & Policy Shifts
European Union:
Extreme weather is taking a toll—EU farms are losing an estimated €28 billion annually, with most of those losses uninsured. In response, the EU is considering easing environmental conditions on subsidy programs and speeding up emergency relief for disaster-hit farmers.
United Kingdom:
Rural groups are raising alarms over possible budget cuts to agriculture. The Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) scheme is under review, and concerns are growing about the long-term viability of food security and environmental targets if funding is reduced.
United States & United Kingdom Trade Deal:
A new bilateral agreement opens the door to $5 billion in new U.S. agricultural exports, including beef and ethanol. The UK, in turn, secures dedicated beef export access to the U.S. However, some uncertainty remains around how this might affect the global bioethanol market.
USDA Programs:
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has officially opened applications for its FY2026 Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market Development (FMD) program. These initiatives are critical in promoting U.S. agricultural exports globally—including strategic support for emerging markets in Africa.
🤖 AgriTech & Innovation Highlights
DroneDash + Farmsent: AI + blockchain tools deployed across 490,000 acres in Malaysia.
SkyX: Blockchain-linked weather stations enabling real-time decisions.
See & Spray by John Deere: Reducing herbicide use by up to 66%.
Other Innovators:
Prospera (AI crop imaging)
CATTLEytics (digital twins for livestock)
AeroFarms (vertical farming, water-saving tech)
🚢 African Export & Trade Trends
📦 South Africa
Q1 2025 exports up 10% YoY to $3.36B, led by grapes, corn, wine, apples.
📈 East Africa
Tanzania: Dominant regional supplier of maize and rice.
Kenya: Top importer amid local shortfalls.
Uganda/Ethiopia: Filling in sorghum deficits due to Sudanese crop failure.
🔄 Shifting Routes
South African maize heading north to Zimbabwe.
Zambian wheat reaching India, reflecting intercontinental shifts.
🌍 AfCFTA Opportunity
If fully implemented, intra-African food trade could rise 60% by 2045—especially in processed goods.
✅ Key Takeaways for Stakeholders
Commodity supply is rising, but climate volatility and trade complexity are reshaping markets.
New routes and deals (AfCFTA, US/UK) present massive export growth opportunities—if infrastructure keeps up.
AI and drone tech are becoming standard in high-efficiency farms—watch for adoption lag in Africa.
Expect weather and policy to be bigger drivers than price cycles in Q3–Q4 2025.
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🗓️ Coming next week:
El Niño update + Fertilizer price forecast + Spotlight on Shea and Sesame demand curves.